Subject: UFO UpDate: Sagan In Stars & Stripes 11-26-92 Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2003 08:20:06 -0500 From: UFO UpDates - Toronto To: "- UFO - UpDates Subscribers -":; Date: 01-04-95 (03:18) To: ALL From: Steven Vincent Johnson Subj: Carl Sagan - Stars and Stripes Newspaper article, Nov. 26, 1 Read: (N/A) Conf: U-AltParaUFO Subject: Carl Sagan - Stars and Stripes Newspaper article, Nov. 26, 1962 Date: Tue, 3 Jan 1995 23:05:00 UNDEFINED Organization: University of Wisconsin Carl Sagan Speech An Associated Press (AP) article in the Stars and Stripes, A U.S. military newspaper Date: Monday, November 26, 1962 The following Stars and Stripes news article was retrieved from a microfilm reel from the State Historical Society located in Madison, Wisconsin. For further information you can reach the Microfilm Reading Room by calling 1 (608) 264-6536. The specific microfilm reel contains the European version of the Stars and Stripes military news paper for October through December 1962. (There are also Pacific and U.S. mainland versions of the Stars and Stripes, which didn't carry the following AP article.) The identification tag for this microfilm reel is: P29240. I wish to thank Mr. James Easton who resides in the mythic land of Scotland (TEXJE ** vaxb.heriot-watt.ac.uk) for tracking down the date of this article as well as the specific newspaper. It would appear that a number of UFO magazines back in the 60s and 70s may have drawn much of their intellectual ammunition from this AP article, particularly since a prestigious Assistant Professor from Harvard University gave the speech. (For those interested, I draw additional personal speculations at the end of this article concerning the issue of public imagery and the health of one's professional career.) For those who wish a photocopy of the article. Send me A SELF ENCLOSED STAMPED ENVELOPE (A 32 cent stamp for U.S. mail please, or one U.S. dollar if from outside continental U.S.A.) and send it to: Steven V. Johnson Attn: Carl Sagan Article - 11/26/62 702 Eugenia Avenue Madison, Wisconsin 53705 PS: And if you are nice I'll even enclose a freebie post card from one of my own paintings on science fiction, astronomy, and mythic UFO art. * * * * * * * * * * * START OF ARTICLE * * * * * * * * * * * * * Prof Says Beings From Outer Space Have Visited Earth LOS ANGELES. (AP) - Some of the best scientific minds in the country were stumped when a slender, dark-haired young man chalked on the blackboard this equation: N equals R FP NE FL FI FC L. The speaker was Dr. Carl Sagan, a 28 year-old assistant professor of astronomy at Harvard University. His audience consisted of several hundred members of the American Rocket Society, gathered for his luncheon address. The equation was his way of expressing the mathematical probability that intelligent beings from outer space have visited earth. Sagan soberly explained that in his equation N Stands for the number of advanced technical civilizations in the universe possessing the capability of interstellar communication. R is the mean rate of star formation averaged over the lifetime of the galaxy. FP is the fraction of stars with planetary systems. NE is the mean number of planets in each system with environments favorable for the origin of life. FL is the fraction of such planets on which life does develop. FI is the fraction of such inhabited planets on which intelligent life with manipulative abilities rises during the lifetime of the local sun. FC is the fraction of planets populated by intelligent beings on which advanced technical civilizations rises. And L is the lifetime of this technical civilization. Sagan said information in his formula is based on current estimates by astronomers. In making calculations, he assigned each symbol an arbitrary numerical value. As expressed in numbers, Sagan said, the formula means that at least 1 million of the 100 billion stars in our Milky Way galaxy have planets which have developed civilizations capable of travel between the stars. "Let's say that each of these civilizations sends out one interstellar expedition per year," he said. "That means that every star, such as our sun, would be visited at least once every million years. In some systems where these beings found life, they would make more frequent visits. There's a strong probability, then, that they have visited earth every few thousand years. "It is not out of the question that artifacts of these visits still exist or even that some kind of base is maintained, possibly automatically, within the solar system, to provide continuity for successive expeditions. "Because of weathering and the possibility of detection and interference by the inhabitants of earth it would be preferable not to erect such a base on the earth's surface. The moon seems one reasonable alternative. "Forthcoming photographic reconnaissance of the moon from space vehicles - particularly of the back - might bear these possibilities in mind." At a news conference Sagan predicted man himself would be capable of interstellar flight at close to the speed of light "within a century or two." Asked if he believed in flying saucers, he said: "I do believe there are objects which have yet to be identified." * * * * * * * * END of Stars and Stripes Article * * * * * * * PERSONAL THOUGHTS ON SAGAN'S 1962 SPEECH One can only imagine the discomfort (as well as the lesson of cultivating an undesirable public image through guilt-by-association with UFO theorists) a very young 28 year old assistant professor trying to gain tenure at a prestigious university must have felt when he began to find his theoretical mathematical speculations and conclusions showing up in fragmented bits and pieces in UFO magazines of that era. I believe there is ample evidence to suggest that a scientific/ academic professional career would be adversely affected if one became associated with what was (and often still is) considered the lunatic fringe element groups of society. Not the kind of PR one wishes to advertise to one's peers who hold the purse strings while attempting to win the position of Associate Professorship as well as tenure! It may also help explain why Mr. Sagan for most of his professional and highly successful PUBLIC career appears to have been a staunch skeptic concerning analysis of UFO evidence, as if to distance himself as much as possible from his earlier comments. For further evidence concerning Mr. Sagan's personal sensitivity to the issue of public imagery I would recommend interested scholars read pages 205 - 208 of Hogland's book "Monuments of Mars" for a fascinating dialogue exchange that was alleged to have occurred between these two individuals. I realize many like to portray Hogland, who was a former advisor to Walter Cronkite CBS news on the science of NASA's epic journeys to the moon during the Apollo Program, as a self serving idiot with illusions of grandeur. Never the less I feel it is appropriate to mention here that Sagan has always had the right to sue Mr. Hogland if he felt Hogland had misquoted him or misinterpreted his intentions. To the best of my knowledge Mr. Sagan has not done so, and I would also mention that it would appear that Mr. Sagan has indeed used the court of law when he felt his name was being defamed in some fashion as I believe he recently attempted to do so against Apple Computer Inc. Steve --------------------------------------------------- \_______________________________________________/ UFO UpDates - Toronto A UFO & Related Phenomena E-Mail List operated by Errol Bruce-Knapp ---------------------------------------------- FURTHER REFERENCES GO - "search perceptions" - in SEARCH-ENGINE file-ID www.perceptions.couk.com/uef/saganspeech.txt